TMA Weekly E-News Bulletin – January 17, 2026

October Trade Deficit Falls 39%, Lowest In Years

The U.S. trade deficit has been reduced to $29.4 billion, after last being reported at $48.1 billion. The forecasted deficit had been $58.1 billion. The deficit is the lowest since 2009, according to news reports. The improved trade balance indicates that while the U.S. is still importing more goods and services than exporting them, the reduced deficit could strengthen the U.S. dollar. With a stronger currency, there could be increased foreign demand for the dollar, resulting in an appreciation in its value.

Inflation Holds Steady

According to yesterday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, December’s 2.7% annualized inflation rate matched expectations, buoying hopes that the Federal Reserve’s long-targeted 2% annual inflation rate may be within reach. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy, rose at 2.6% annually. One of the leading elements of inflation — shelter costs — rose by 0.4% in December, the largest increase in three months. Food prices also rose, increasing 0.7% on the month. Recreational costs increased by 1.2%, the largest monthly gain ever recorded dating back to 1993. The issue of housing affordability has yet to diminish. In short, the report is a mixed bag as the inflation Democrats created in 2021 persists.

Third-Quarter Productivity Growth Highest Since 2023

U.S. worker productivity surged in the third quarter, growing at the fastest pace in two years, driven by significant investments in AI, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm productivity rose at an annualized rate of 4.9%, while unit labor costs fell 1.9%. This sharp increase surpasses economists’ expectations and follows a 4.1% gain in the previous quarter, showcasing significant recent gains in hourly output per worker. More HERE.

December 2025 Jobs Numbers

December’s employment numbers came in below the Dow Jones estimate of 73,000, with 50,000 jobs added. The slower job growth was buoyed by a drop in the headline unemployment rate to 4.4%, which came in below the expected 4.5%. Furthermore, the overall unemployment rate dropped to 8.4%. Meanwhile, average hourly wages grew by 0.3%, meeting expectations, while annual earnings increased by 3.8%, which was 0.2% higher than forecast. Overall workforce participation came in at 62.4%.

Manufacturing Output Slips for 10th Consecutive Month, Reports ISM

The report’s benchmark reading, the PMI, registered 47.9, down 0.3% compared to November. More HERE.

Continued Economic Growth Predicted

The 4th quarter GDP growth from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank is up to 5.4%. This follows 4.3% growth in Q3 and 3.8% in Q2. More HERE.

Metalformers’ More Optimistic Entering New Year

Metalforming companies are more optimistic about business conditions heading into the new year according to the Precision Metalforming Association. PMA’s December report shows 26 percent expect an increase in business conditions over the next three months, up from just 14 percent in November. Only 17 percent expect a decline in activity, less than half the figure (35 percent) in the previous report. More HERE.

U.S. Debt Grows: Federal Government Debt Rising Fastest

The Federal Reserve Board has issued its report on the “Financial Accounts of the United States” for Q3-2025. Federal Government debit increased by 15.5% in the quarter – representing a marked acceleration in the rate of growth of Federal debit. State and local government debt increased by 5.5% – reflecting a slowing in the rate of expansion of State and local government debt. Meanwhile:

• Household debt increased 4.1 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2025.
• Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent.
• Mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent.
• Non-financial business debt rose at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the third quarter of 2025.

A copy of the entire report can be found HERE.

Nicor Files Another Gas Rate Hike Less Than 2 Months After Last Increase Approved

Nicor Gas has submitted a rate request to the Illinois Commerce Commission, seeking a $221 million rate increase. Utility watchdog groups denounced the move as a “money grab,” which comes two months after state regulators approved a $168 million rate increase in November. More HERE.

ADVOCACY

Pritzker Signs Energy Omnibus With New Charge for Ratepayers in 2030

Illinois Gov. Pritzker has signed sweeping energy legislation that will add a new line item to Illinois utility bills. Senate Bill 25, the Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act (CRGA), went to the governor’s desk after passing both houses of the General Assembly during fall veto session in October. Pritzker signed the bill. One hotly-debated provision of the new law adds a new charge on Illinois electric bills, starting in 2030, to pay for state procurement of three gigawatts of battery storage. More HERE.

It’s Time to Register to Vote and Request Vote-By-Mail Ballots

TMA members can now register to vote online HERE. You can also vote from the convenience of your home. Click on your location below for instructions on how to request a mail-in ballot. If your county is not on the list, email TMA Advocacy for information on your county:

More than 150 Contested Legislative Candidates on TMA member Ballots in Primary

While a few petition challenges still remain, Republicans and Democrats will have more than 150 contested candidates on the ballot for state and federal office in TMA member regions in the March 17 primary. TMA will again be providing members guidance on these candidates, where they stand on manufacturing issues, and where, when and how to vote. Stay tuned.

MEMBERS

Acme Industrial Company Celebrates 100 Years of TMA Membership

TMA was proud to celebrate its first 100-year member, Acme Industrial Company. TMA President Patrick Osborne and the TMA team had the opportunity to visit Acme, meet their team, and recognize this remarkable milestone. Congratulations and thank you to Acme Industrial Company for 100 years of loyal membership (photo below).

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